Trump as President
Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President of the United States. While much attention has been paid to his business history, his personal life, and penchant for insulting...everyone, our policy experts are taking a hard look at the actual ideas Trump is running on and the things he would try to do as President. The material below, which we will update throughout the general election, provide insight into the policy implications of Trump becoming President.
Donald Trump is Fundamentally Unfit to be Commander-in-Chief
A Trump presidency would pose the gravest danger to the United States and the world of any candidate in the modern era—maybe ever. Third Way has partnered with the Truman National Security Project to launch the #AdmitHesUnfit campaign. It demands that Republicans and their allies grapple with a simple question: Do you believe Donald Trump is fit to be Commander-in-Chief?
Beyond his mercurial temperament and horrendous judgment are the things Trump has actually proposed or said about national security and foreign policy. Our National Security team picked the Top 10 most reckless Donald Trump statements on terrorism and national security.
Trump is already setting off alarms with our allies. Top Republicans were forced to confront and denounce his reckless statement that he would not come to the defense of our NATO allies unless they’ve paid their dues. As our National Security team explains, retreating from NATO would invite further Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and unravel the international coalition that stood shoulder-to-shoulder with U.S. service members to wipe out al Qaeda and bring down the Taliban.
Estate Tax Proposal Gives Billions to One Family: Trump's
“My tax plan is going to cost me a fortune,” Donald Trump said at press conference in Trump Tower last September. It won’t. Our Economic Program estimates Trump's proposed elimination of the estate tax would funnel $7.1 billlion to the Trump family dynasty. That yuge inheritance could be invested in national priorities, such as funding an aggressive cancer research push for seven years.
A Tax Return is Greater Than a Financial Disclosure
That’s why Donald Trump’s unprecedented refusal to release his tax returns matters. We explain six things that a tax return would show that Trump’s financial disclosure statement does not. For a candidate who has a very loose relationship with the truth, the fact that financial disclosures are not audited for accuracy is significant.
Beyond the important questions about Trump’s assets and charitable giving, tax returns disclose how much a candidate paid in taxes. Approximately 128 million federal income tax payers support a number of public services that would get near-unanimous support from the country. We list 10 things the government does with American tax dollars. If Trump ever releases his taxes, Americans can find out if he is one of them.
Trump’s Visitor Ban Isn’t Just Un-American. It’s Bad for the Economy.
In December, Donald Trump called for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.” Recently, Trump—in his own words—“expanded” the Muslim ban to include “any nation that has been compromised by terrorism.” This proposal has drawn derision for its incompatibility with American values and it’s inconsistency with U.S. foreign policy goals. But the economic consequences are also harmful.
We calculate Trump’s visitor ban would decrease U.S. GDP by $30.5 billion and cost the domestic economy 182,000 jobs in just year one. The losses would increase significantly each year the ban remains.
We also highlight the economic contributions America would be losing out on by halting Muslim immigration by considering the significant contributions of American Muslims, who are among the most educated and highest-earning populations.
Trump Costs You With His Trade Policy
Donald Trump's virulent anti-trade agenda would upend decades of U.S. leadership to open new markets for American goods. And his protectionist appeals are riddled with inaccuracies. We reviewed Trump's economic speech outlining his 7-point trade agenda and highlight 11 big ways Trump's facts and proposals are simply wrong.
That makes his selection of Governor Mike Pence as his running mate a little awkward. Until he joined the Trump campaign, Pence has boasted a strong record as a free trade supporter. He's never met a free trade agreement he didn't like, voting for 11 and against none. But perhaps his thinking has...evolved? We compiled a list of the top six times Donald Trump and Governor Pence contradicted each other on trade policy.
Our Economic team looked at how Trump's proposed tariffs would increase the cost of common consumer goods. Let's just say holidays (actually all days ending in "-y") are going to get more expensive. Click on either image to read the memos on just how much Trump's tariffs would add to some of the items American families purchased over the summer and to send their children back-to-school.
And the impacts of Trump's protectionist proposals doesn't end at your wallet. Despite his rosy claims, the economic reverberations would touch every global market.
“His proposed tariff on Chinese imports could spark a trade war and global depression.” —The Washington Post (March 16, 2016)
We gathered the views of over 50 leading policy experts, publications, and outlets and they emphatically debunk and rebuke the Republican nominee's trade proposals.
Trump Doesn't Understand Global Supply Chains
Trump's disastrous trade policies point to a larger problem: he fundamentally misunderstands global supply chains. We review the history of protectionist trade policies—a central tenant of Donald Trump's trade policy. They didn't work in the early 1900's when companies like Ford produced the Model T from parts manufactured exclusively from the area surrounding Detroit.
And they certainly won't work in 2017, now that companies like Boeing rely on suppliers from Korea, Japan, Australia, and Canada to assemble the 787—and that's just the wing of the plane! In a complementary memo, we explain supply chains are the lifeblood of our modern, global economy and Trump's policies could throw them out of whack. That hurts both American consumers and jobs.
Buckle Up: Trump Could Make the Financial Sector Incredibly Risky Again
Trump takes a truly odd position on financial regulation: repeal Dodd-Frank and reinstate Glass-Steagall. Not only would that make our economy vulnerable to repeating the financial crisis, the financial sector could be twice as risky under a Trump administration that repeals Dodd-Frank. We explain why replacing Dodd-Frank with Glass-Steagall would leave gaping holes in the laws we have created since the crisis to ensure that it never happens again.
Intimidating Central Bank Leaders: Putin Would Be Proud
Trump's recent shaming of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was right out of the Putin playbook. By bullying a central bank leader during an election, Trump entered territory that economists and political leaders around the world have long known to avoid. We write in The Hill, Trump's bluster could undermine the Fed's ability to check inflation by managing market expectations.
"If Trump wins, he will select Yellen’s successor in 2018. Come time for the 2020 election, does anyone think Trump would keep his mouth shut on interest rates out of respect for Fed independence? If candidate Trump couldn’t resist, why would President Trump?"
Trump on Immigration: Bad on Every Level
Disastrously expensive, completely unworkable for law enforcement, and a violation of the founding principles of this nation. That's what a group of conservative and non-partisan scholars and advocates have said about Trump's immigration plan.
We tallied the costs of Trump's border wall (no, Mexico isn't paying), the dramatic increase in detention beds, immigration enforcement officers, and investigators to deport 11 million people in two years (it would be more likely to take 20 years). That's in addition to the economic hit from losing millions of workers and consumers who are part of the fabric of our economy.
Trump Social Policy Fiats on Day One
“We want to identify maybe 25 executive orders that Trump could sign literally the first day in office.”
—Trump aides describe the First Day Project in The New Yorker
Donald Trump is promising social conservatives that he will wield his executive authority to turn back the clocks on a whole range of social issues if they help put him in the Oval Office. We review some of the actions he could take on day one that would unilaterally undercut President Obama’s legacy, and the values upon which our democracy is built.
A Supreme Court Remade in Trump’s Image
If Donald Trump wins, the next Supreme Court Justice could be someone who thinks Social Security is unconstitutional or believes same-sex relationships are comparable to necrophilia.
The next President will likely nominate several Justices, ensuring Americans could feel the effects of a President Trump for decades—even if he only lasts one term. Trump has promised to nominate judges in the “mold of Justice Scalia” and is banking on this issue driving conservatives to the polls on November 8th.
Our new memo looks at how a court made over in Trump’s image could rewind the clock on a myriad of issues including gun safety, abortion access, money in politics, the Affordable Care Act, and discrimination against LGBT Americans.
Trump is the NRA's Dream Candidate
Donald Trump's candidacy is a dream come true for the National Rifle Association. His rhetoric is scary and extreme. But if he is elected President, his gun policies would be dangerous. In fact, some of his positions go further than even the NRA dares to tread.
Trump's Big Government Takeover of Education
Trump continues his trend of going where few dare tread with his education plan. We analyzed his new proposal for K-12 education and show a Trump Administration would prevent states and communities from making decisions about how bet to improve their local schools. It's one big federal mandate—and more power for the Department of Education than would have ever been dreamed of under Presidents Obama or Bush.
A Disaster for Climate Change Progress
What will energy policy look like in a Trump Administration? Imagine taking a shredder to all of the progress that the Obama Administration has made on climate change. We unpack Trump's promise to "cancel" the Paris climate agreement. That would mean he's actively working to increase carbon emissions, which is clearly bad for climate efforts. But as our Medium post shows, it's also anti-business.
Empty Promises for Coal Communities
Donald Trump has boasted he alone can turn back the clocks on our energy markets and "bring back coal 100%." We unpack the factors that have contributed to the decline of coal stretching back to the 1920s and show that Trump's policies aren't serious responses to the real challenge of expanding economic opportunity in coal communities. Case in point? Trump has pledged to expand natural gas, which is the primary driver for the decline of coal jobs in the last five years—not any Obama-era regulations.