E-Binder Published May 19, 2025 · 2 minute read
Moderates Win Tough Seats
Third Way
The Moderate New Democrats Have Flipped 50 Seats from Red to Blue Since 2018
The New Democrat Action Fund has flipped 50 seats blue, while the far-left organizations such as Our Revolution and Justice Democrats have not flipped a single Republican-held seat blue over the last four cycles.
Moderate New Democrats and Blue Dogs Overperform Progressives, Justice Democrats, and Our Revolution
The centrist New Democrats and Blue Dogs overperformed race fundamentals by 0.5 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents endorsed by Our Revolution and Justice Democrats, two leading left-wing groups, saw margins that were on average five percentage points narrower than fundamentals suggest they ought to have been. – Split Ticket via The Washington Post
From 2018 to 2024, the More Moderate a Congressional Caucus Was, the Better Their Members Overperformed
From 2018 to 2024, the moderate Blue Dogs were the best Democratic caucus in overperformance of expectations, with the moderate NewDems close behind. Blue Dogs did 3.9 points better, on average, from 2018 to 2024, and overperformed progressives by 4.5 points, with NewDems overperforming progressives by one point. – Split Ticket
Frontliners and NewDems Overperformed Harris
DCCC Frontline Democrats, who ran in the most competitive House races in 2024, overperformed Kamala Harris by 4.5 percentage points, with 28 Frontliners overperforming Harris in their districts. Non-incumbent NewDem candidates ran neck and neck with Harris, with 26 candidates overperforming her in their districts.
