E-Binder Published May 21, 2025 · 2 minute read
Democrats’ Path to Victory: Winning Moderate Voters
Third Way
Winning a Supermajority of Moderates is Democrats’ Path to the White House
Since 1980, Democrats have only managed to win a single presidential election when they did not have over 60% of moderate voter support nationwide. In 2020, self-identified moderate voters broke for Joe Biden 62%-36% over Donald Trump, and Biden won a supermajority of moderate voters in the battleground states that he flipped from red to blue. In 2024, Kamala Harris failed to win that same supermajority of moderate voters and lost all seven of the battleground states. – Third Way
2026 Senate Candidates Need To Win Large Majorities of Moderate Voters
From just over 50 percent of moderate voters in Maine (due to there being fewer conservative voters) to 75 percent of moderates in Iowa, Democrats must win healthy majorities of moderate voters across the board to take back ground in the U.S. Senate in 2026.
Frontline Districts are Overwhelmingly Ideologically Moderate and Conservative and Require Mainstream Candidates that can Appeal to a Large Tent of Voters
Across Frontline districts, ideological moderates and conservatives combined make up nearly 80% of the electorate—outnumbering liberal voters 4-to-1 —while safe Dem districts, held by Our Revolution candidates, contain a disproportionate number of ideologically liberal voters. – Third Way
