Memo Published October 9, 2025 · 2 minute read
Debunking Myths About the Democratic Party
Third Way
There has been a slew of bizarre myths put out by hyper-online political navel gazers that claims ideology does not matter and should not be valued in elections, that moderate Democrats are weak candidates, and more. We are debunking those myths here:
Fact: Moderate Candidates Outperform Far-Left Candidates
- Moderate Blue Dogs and New Democrats outperform the far left: Split Ticket’s WAR model shows that Blue Dog and New Democrat incumbents overperformed race fundamentals by 3.6 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, in 2024. Meanwhile, far-left Democratic incumbents, endorsed by Our Revolution and Justice Democrats, underperformed race fundamentals by five percentage points. This is a nine percentage-point gap between the Blue Dogs and the far left and a six percentage-point gap between NewDems and the far-left. – Split Ticket
- Far-left candidates are kryptonite and moderates overperform the typical Democrat: Elliott Morris’s WAR model shows that Our Revolution-endorsed Representative Ilhan Omar has a WAR score of -9, while Blue Dog Representative Jared Golden has a score of +9 (18 percentage points higher than Rep. Omar). Morris’s model also finds that the average moderate Democrat outperforms a generic Democratic candidate by 2.5 points, which could be the difference between a Democratic House majority or a five-seat deficit to Republicans. – Strength In Numbers
Fact: Moderate Democrats Flip Red Seats Blue—Far-Left Dems Only Win In Safe Seats
- Moderates flip red seats blue: The New Democrat Action Fund has flipped 50 seats blue, while the far-left organizations Our Revolution and Justice Democrats have not flipped a single Republican-held seat blue over the last four cycles.
- The far-left loses: Since 2018, non-incumbent House candidates endorsed by far-left groups Justice Democrats, the Sunrise Movement, and Our Revolution have lost 99 races across both primary and general elections—an 82% loss rate. A total of 65 losses came in primaries and 34 were in general election races. None of the far left’s victories flipped seats from red to blue.
