Highlighting Progress in the War Against al Qaeda

Introduction

Progressives have long argued that the United States should shift its focus away from Iraq and towards the fight against al Qaeda terrorists and supporters in Afghanistan and elsewhere. President Obama, with the support of the majority in Congress, has done just that. He clarified the mission in Afghanistan, and provided greater resources to the fight. He strengthened Pakistan’s resolve to move militarily against al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries inside its borders. He increased the use of Predator drones—the number of missile strikes against terrorist targets doubled in 2009 and is on pace to increase further this year.

Because of the brave work of our dedicated troops, intelligence professionals, FBI agents and Foreign Service officers, the progressive strategy of taking the fight to the terrorists is working. Senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders are killed or captured almost daily. And now we have evidence that they truly are—at long last—on the run.

Progressive leaders, from the President himself to Members of Congress, are correct not to declare “Mission Accomplished.” The war is far from over—al Qaeda and the Taliban remain dangerous, implacable foes, and our troops still face a serious fight. But the public must understand that the progress we are making is real and that America is safer as a result. Communicating that message is both a substantive and political imperative—it will build trust in the progressive strategy, which is vital to our war effort, and it will help close the gap between the parties on the question of who best can provide for the security of the nation.

To that end, we recommend that progressives make concerted efforts to inform the public about the gains we are making in the fight, with a message like this:

Since the day President Obama took office, the United States has stepped up the fight against terrorists, and it’s working. The President’s new approach in Afghanistan, with increased troops levels, more Predator strikes and Special Forces operations, has meant that bin Laden and his followers are unable to operate freely, and we are killing and capturing major al Qaeda and Taliban leaders almost every week. We are still in the thick of the fight, but we have put the focus in the war against al Qaeda back where it has always belonged—in Afghanistan—and we are getting results.

Real Successes in Fighting Terrorism

In March 2008, then-CIA Director Michael Hayden said in an interview, “it's very clear to us that al Qaeda has been able, over the past 18 months or so, to establish a safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area that they have not enjoyed before.”¹ However, the situation in this region has changed. This week, nearly two years to the day since Hayden’s statement, CIA Director Leon Panetta told reporters: “It's pretty clear from all the intelligence we are getting that they are having a very difficult time putting together any kind of command and control, that they are scrambling. And that we really do have them on the run."²

This isn’t the kind of empty bluster that we heard from President Bush and his senior officials. Director Panetta’s assessment is based on a number of recent publicly reported successes that the United States has had in the fight. These fall into one general and one specific category:

Progress on the War Against al Qaeda

• Director Panetta noted that CIA operations in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region are seriously disrupting al Qaeda’s operations. He described al Qaeda's disarray as so serious that one of its lieutenants pleaded to bin Laden to come to the group's rescue and provide some leadership.³
• General Petraeus testified to the Senate Armed Service Committee that the Pakistani military carried out “several impressive operations” against the Taliban in recent months, particularly in the northwest tribal regions and down to South Waziristan.⁴
• According to press accounts, the number of armed Predators in the air around the clock in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region are being doubled over the number at the end of the Bush administration. Since 2009, over 600 terrorists have been killed by drone strikes, from 2004 to 2008, the number was 230.⁵

Killed and Captured al Qaeda and Taliban Leaders

• Baitullah Mehsud: Leader of the Pakistani Taliban. He was killed in August 2009 by a drone strike. His successor, Hakeemullah Mehsud, was targeted by a drone strike in January 2010. It is unclear if he survived.

• Sadam Hussein Al Hussami: A top al Qaeda official, involved in planning the suicide attack against the CIA in Afghanistan. He was killed by a drone strike on March 10, 2010.
• Saleh al Somali: al Qaeda’s senior operations planner. He was killed by a drone strike on December 8, 2009.⁶
• Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar: Taliban Leader Mullah Omar’s Deputy, he was believed to be in de facto control of the Taliban in recent years. He was captured in Karachi, Pakistan in February 2010.⁷
• In February 2010, two Taliban regional “shadow governors” (Mullah Abdul Salam and Mullah Salih) were captured in Pakistan.⁸

Communicating Our Successes

This is important information, but for members of the public who are not following the war news closely, they may not know about our successes. This must change, both for substantive and political reasons.

First, the most important battle in America’s modern wars is the one for US public opinion. Without popular support, a war cannot be sustained. And while significant majorities currently back the President’s approach, it is vital that Americans remain confident in the course we are on.

Second, the President and his party can reap real political benefit from talking more about their successes in the fight. As Third Way and Democracy Corps found in a poll conducted at the end of February, a 69 percent majority of voters say they felt more confident about Democrats on national security as a result of this message:

Democrats say: Since the day Obama took office, we’ve stepped up the fight against terrorists. Using our Special Forces and Predator planes in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Yemen, we captured or killed hundreds of al Qaeda’s fighters and affiliates in 2009, far more than in 2008. Just last week, US forces helped capture the Taliban’s top military commander.⁹

This argument wins over a 61 percent majority of independents, even though this block currently is leaning Republican and tends to be skeptical of the President and his party on national security.

Conclusion

All of this underscores the imperative for progressive leaders to talk about the extraordinary successes that the United States is having in its battle against al Qaeda. We are not at the end of the fight, but after eight years of mismanagement, we are on the offensive in taking the fight to the terrorist and making progress again.