Fast Facts About Disillusioned Trump Voters

In our July poll about finding out what is breaking through to everyday voters, one group stood out as an emerging one to watch. These are people who we are calling Disillusioned Trump Voters. They voted for Trump in 2024 but share some combination of the following: they believe his term is going worse than expected, they disapprove of his job performance, and/or they disapprove of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Admittedly, this is still a small group, about 10% of our sample, but one that is large enough (199n) to begin to examine. Here are some fast facts about who they are, why they are disillusioned, and what they want to see moving forward.

Who Are They?

These disillusioned Trump voters are more likely to be independents, non-white, young (18-39), and those consuming news weekly rather than daily.

Seventy percent of Trump voters self-identified as Republicans and 25% identified as independents. This split is a similar 67/25 among those who currently approve of Trump. However, disillusioned Trump voters have an outsized share of independents at 37%, a 12-point jump.

In this sample, Trump voters were 81% white and 19% non-white. Among those who approve of Trump’s job performance, the numbers are identical at 80/20, but among disillusioned Trump voters, the non-white share is at 29%, mainly driven by dissatisfaction among Latinos and Asian Trump voters.

In terms of age, there was a noticeable gap between those under 40 years old and those 40 and over. Seventy percent of Trump voters and approvers are 40 and older while 30% of his supporters are under 40. Among disillusioned Trump voters, the share of younger cohort voters rises to 36%.

News consumption habits was another clear demographic differentiator in terms of likelihood to be a disillusioned Trump voter. Among Trump voters, 47% said they consumed political news daily while 53% said less than daily. That 47/53 is the same split among those who currently approve of Trump. Among those who we identify as disillusioned Trump voters, 65% consume news less than daily to 35% who consume it daily.

The takeaway: the voter groups who notably swung towards Trump in 2024 are swinging back away from him as his policies backfire.

What Are They Upset At?

In our MaxDiff exercise pitting messages against each other, we tested options about the actions that Congressional Republicans had taken that people found most persuasive.

All voters, Trump voters, and disillusioned Trump voters had the same top four messages in order, which was generally true of most demographic groups as well. But there were signs that disillusioned Trump voters more closely matched the total sample than their fellow Trump voters.

What the MaxDiff found was that Medicaid cuts, bankrupting the country to pay for tax cuts for the rich, closing rural hospitals, and cutting food assistance programs were the four most effective messages in that order against Congressional Republicans.

Disillusioned Trump voters were significantly more concerned than the average Trump voter about cuts to Medicaid and food stamp assistance programs, hinting that the weakening of the social safety net is something driving Trump voters out of that coalition right now.

Far and away, the best argument we found was the hits on the OBBB, but other messages showed that disillusioned Trump voters think differently than all Trump voters. There were some lower-salience arguments that did peel disillusioned Trump voters away - including calling GOP members out for giving in to Trump, and for deporting people who contribute to the community. On the flip side, messages on corruption, Republicans not holding town halls, and taxing clean energy companies did not register as meaningful ways to talk to disillusioned Trump voters as they were more agnostic to them than all Trump voters.

Disillusioned Trump voters also differ from Trump voters on their view of Congressional Republicans. Trump voters say by a 66% to 22% margin that Congressional Republicans put their constituents first rather than blindly follow Trump. Among those who currently approve of Trump, that belief strengthens from 69% to 18%. However, disillusioned Trump voters shift to 58% blindly follow Trump to 35% put constituents first.

In short, the Trump voters who are falling out of his camp are doing so because of the price of health care and food, and they believe that OBBB is going to raise those costs, not lower them. Focusing on these key factors and avoiding issues where they hew to rest of their co-voters is vital.

What Do They Want?

The survey asked what respondents would like to see national leaders work towards to make Americans’ lives better.

Their top two performing answers were banning members of Congress from trading stocks and rewarding people who work hard for a living by letting them keep more money they earn, while ending tax breaks for billionaires and big corporations.

Another message that did better with disillusioned Trump voters compared to others not high on Trump was fighting waste in government and cutting programs that aren’t producing good results.

The disillusioned Trump voters value fair play and hard work and their answers reflected that. They don’t want government to privilege a select few, whether it be the wealthy, insiders, or scammers.

Conclusion

These disillusioned Trump voters are an emerging segment of the voter population, and researchers should keep them in mind as this group potentially grows and hardens in its resolve. While they feel that they have reason to be disappointed or even angry with the president and congressional allies, there is little evidence today that they are shifting safely into the Democratic camp for future federal elections. Democratic leaders and communicators should look seriously at who these folks are, why they are upset, and what do they want if they want to bring them into the coalition in 2026 and beyond.