Published October 5, 2023
3 minute read
Talking Points on the Third-Party Threat to Re-Elect Trump
- In 2024, all third parties are dangerous. Third-party candidates—whether No Labels or RFK—will divide the anti-Trump coalition and put a dangerous man back in the White House.
- No Labels has no “path to victory.” Their electoral college map is a fantasy, projecting to win 286 electoral votes from states like MA and VT, which Biden won by 30+ in 2020.
And this is not a “unique moment in history.” No Labels insists voters want what they’re selling in unprecedented ways. But their focus on voter openness to a third-party is nonsense. First, it’s not much higher today than it has been for decades. And second, it has never translated into a third-party victory.
- In 1992, 59% of voters said they were open to other choices. Perot’s eventual vote total was 40 points lower (19%), and he got zero electoral votes.
The three-way horse race comes out bad for them every time. All available polling finds No Labels in a distant third in a three-way race. Even their own polling proves our point. No one has found them coming remotely close to a plurality.
- Plus, candidates matter. The anti-choice and anti-LGBTQ+ extremists they are recruiting, like Jon Huntsman and Pat McCrory, show No Labels’ true colors and how out of step they are with voters.
- The experts know they’re a spoiler. No Labels is completely alone in their assessment that they won’t be a spoiler. Independent analysts agree they can’t win and will hurt Biden.
- One reason we know that’s true: Trump won’t bleed voters. Trump’s floor is solid, and his ceiling is about the same. He is counting on third parties to lock-in his path to victory. There are more soft-partisans and independents in Biden’s coalition, and No Labels is targeting them.
- So, Republicans are salivating at third-party bids. There are no panicked meetings in MAGA world about No Labels. Right-wing voices are rooting for them to take Democratic votes.
- And Trump donors are piling in. A bunch of prominent Republicans like Clarence Thomas’s buddy Harlan Crow are supporting No Labels. You can’t tell me with a straight face that an effort backed by major GOP donors, vendors, and staff isn’t going to hurt Democrats.
- Because they give cover to Donald Trump. In 2016, No Labels hailed Trump as a “Problem Solver”, and they attacked the January 6th Committee as “divisive” and a “partisan exercise.” If they don’t stand down, they will clear his path to the White House in 2024.
- Don’t believe the hype: the No Labels crew are not paragons of democracy. With breathtaking arrogance, the No Labels Party has tried to tie their bid to the Civil Rights Movement while actively undermining our democracy. But let’s be clear: This is a political party refusing to play by the rules so they can collect unlimited amounts of dark money. Their insiders and donors are choosing their presidential ticket. And they are preparing to throw the 2024 election to the House. Sound democratic to you?
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