Did You Know? Trends in Voting Patterns by Demographic Groups

1) Men Matter: In 8 of the last 9 Presidential elections, the winner also won the male vote.

President Carter won men by 4 points in 1976, Pres. Reagan by 17 in 1980 and 24 in 1984, Pres. H.W. Bush by 16 in 1988, Pres. Clinton by 3 in 1992, Pres. W. Bush by 11 in both 2000 and 2004 and Pres. Obama by 1. The only outlier is President Clinton in 1996, who lost men by 1. The gender gap matters, but so do men.

2) Democrats won Independents in 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections, but before that Republicans won them consistently.

Republicans won the Independent vote in 1976 (R+4), 1980 (R+25), 1984 (R+28), and 1988 (R+14). Beginning in 1992, Democrats won Independents consistently, if by smaller margins (1992: +6; 1996: +7; 2004: +2; 2008: +8). In 2000, Republicans edged ahead of Democrats by 2.

3) Democrats need 60% of moderates to win.

No Democrat since President Carter has won the White House as a Democrat without taking 60% of the moderate vote. [Carter was able to do so because of the 30% of conservatives who voted for him.] President Clinton exceeded this margin—when you subtract Perot voters—winning 61% (1992) and 63% (1996). Sen. Kerry won 54% and lost the election; President Reagan won 54% and 49 states. Democrats have a higher bar to clear.

4) Democrats haven’t won white voters since LBJ.

Since 1976,* Republicans have won the white vote, by a low of 2 points in 1992 and 1996 to a high of 32 points in 1984. In the last 3 elections, Republicans have won them by double-digits (2000: R+13; 2004: R+17; 2008: R+12).

Nixon overwhelmingly won most demographics in the 1972 election, when he took over 60% of the popular vote. All data from exit polls, available from the Roper Center.

5) George W. Bush’s close margin with Hispanics was an aberration.

Democrats have won Hispanics in every election since 1976 (1976: D+64; 1980: D+19; 1984: D+32; 1988: D+40; 1992: D+36; 1996: D+52; 2000: D+27; 2004: D+9; 2008: D+36). In 2004, President Bush garnered 44% of the Hispanic vote—the highest on record for a Republican—despite a position on immigration that at the time was hostile to a path to citizenship. This reduced the Democratic margin with Hispanics to 9 points—the only election in which Democrats won Hispanic voters by single digit margins.

6) Clinton and Gore are the only Democrats who have won seniors.

Seniors are largely Republican voters, voting for Democrats only in 1992 (D+11), 1996 (D+6), and 2000 (D+4). Despite President W. Bush pushing for the privatization of Social Security, seniors picked him by 5 points in 2004.