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Memo Published October 2, 2012 Updated October 2, 2012

Debate Preview: Independents and Domestic Issues

By:

Michelle Diggles, Ph.D.

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Recent surveys have shown that Americans are identifying as Independents at record levels. With Democrats and Republicans highly polarized and most maintaining party loyalty in their candidate choice for President, the segment of the population up-for-grabs is dominated by Independents. With the first debate approaching, this memo provides a cheat sheet on what Independents think about a number of domestic policy issues likely to be addressed during the debates—attitudes that President Obama and Mitt Romney will undoubtedly be pondering as they answer questions on Wednesday night.

Demographics

Who are these Independents? Independents are disproportionately represented by younger voters—Millennials and Gen Xers. The majority—67%—are white, while 16% are Hispanic, 7% are black, and 8% answer “Other.” Independents tend to be male (55%) more than female (45%). And the bulk of Independents (43%) identify as moderates, more than conservatives (30%) or liberals (22%).1

Horserace

In 2008, President Obama won 52% of Independent voters.2 But that doesn’t mean he’ll win them again. Independents are swing voters. In 2006, they voted for Democrats for the House by 17 points.3 In 2010, Independents voted for Republicans for the House by 18 points.4 This is a volitile voting bloc.

In Gallup’s election tracking poll, Romney has led or been tied with Obama among Independents since May. Most recently, Gallup has Romney winning Independents by 1 point. Gallup has President Obama ahead among all registered voters 49% to 45%.5

Economic Issues

On economic issues, Independents are split. They tend to give Romney high marks on improving the economy and deficits, and they give Obama high marks on taxes. They want to limit the size of the government but feel Romney went too far in the 47% video.

Independents trust Romney over Obama on their ability to handle the economy as a whole (48% for Romney and 44% for Obama), but they slightly favor Obama on who better understands peoples’ economic troubles (46% for Obama and 44% for Romney).6 Independents trust Romney (49%) over Obama (40%) to support small business.7 But they trust Obama more on improving the prospects of the middle class (48% over 42%).8

While 39% of Independents have some confidence that the economy will bounce back within two years of Obama’s re-election,9 51% say they think that it would improve within two years after Romney’s election.10

Deficit & Government Spending

Independents trust Romney (51%) over Obama (38%) on the federal deficit.11

Jobs

By 6 points, Independents trust Romney (45%) over Obama (39%) on the economy and jobs.12 When phrased as who is “better able to handle jobs,” Romney bests Obama by 9 points, 50% to 41%.13

Better off now?

38% of Independents report that they are now worse off financially than when Obama took office, while 43% say that they are in about the same economic condition.14

Taxes

Independents trust Obama over Romney on taxes (49% over 42%).15 48% of Independents favor letting the Bush tax cuts expire for incomes under $250,000, while 16% favor letting them expire completely. Only 28% of Independents want the tax cuts extended for every income level.16

Role of Government

58% of Independents believe that government programs do more to interfere with peoples’ lives rather than to improve peoples’ lives.17 Consistent with this finding, twice as many Independents believe the government is trying to do too many things (62%) as compared to those who believe that it is not doing enough (29%).18

Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) Independents agree that the government should take care of people who can’t take care of themselves. However, when framed as helping more needy people even if it means going deeper into debt, only 39% of Independents agree.19

The 47%

By 57% to 27%, Independents viewed Romney’s comments about the 47% unfavorably.20 Only 37% of Independents agree with Romney’s comment that the 47% who pay no income taxes are dependent on the government and believe they are victims. 91% of Independents declare in public opinion surveys that they pay income taxes and only 8% say they do not.21

Among Independents, roughly twice as many reported that the leaked Romney video made them less likely to vote for him (29%) as opposed to those who said that the video made them more likely to vote for him (15%). Most (53%) Independents said the video would have no impact on their vote.22

Energy

Clean Energy

Even as gas prices reached record highs in March of this year, Independents continued to prioritize clean energy. In Pew’s March poll, Independents supported the development of alternative energy sources over the expansion of exploration and production of oil, coal, and gas by 20 points (55%-35%).23 In a similar poll from March, this one by Gallup, Independents wanted to emphasize the development of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power over production of oil, gas, and coal supplies by 40 points (67% to 27%).24

Keystone

Independents think the U.S. government should approve the building of the Keystone XL pipeline, 57% to 20%.25

Earned Benefit Programs

Social Security

President Obama is trusted by Independents over Mitt Romney (44% to 39%) on Social Security and Medicare.26 Although they are very deficit sensitive, Independents prioritize maintaining Social Security and Medicare benefits over deficit reduction 48% to 35%.27

Medicare

Independents oppose a gradual shift to vouchers, 49% to 34%.28 But by 2 points (46% to 44%), they trust Romney over Obama when asked about Medicare alone.29 42% of Independents believe it is necessary to make major changes to Medicare to keep it financially sound, while 34% believe only minor changes are necessary. Only 12% of Independents believe no Medicare changes are necessary.30

Health Care

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

53% of Independents disapprove of the Affordable Care Act (35% strongly), but only 31% favor repealing the entire law.31 By 11 points (51% to 40%), Independents trust Obama more than Romney to make the right decisions about the future of the health care law.32

Contraception

62% of Independents support the federal requirement that private health insurance plans cover the cost of contraception.33

Social Issues

Abortion

Over half—54%—of Independents believe abortion should be legal in all (20%) or most (34%) cases.34 Only 15% of Independents think abortion should be illegal in all cases.

Marriage for Gay Couples

Independents favor allowing gay couples to marry by 19 points, with 55% in support and 36% opposed.35

The DREAM Act

Independents support the Obama Administration’s policy on deferred action for children who were brought into the country by no fault of their own, 55% to 38%.36

Comprehensive Immigration Reform

By 21 points, Independents believe illegal immigrants now living in the U.S. should be given the chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status (59% support) as opposed to being deported (38%).37

Summary

Who_Independents_Trust_on_Domestic_Policy_Issues


Endnotes

  1. “Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years,” Report, The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, June 4, 2012, p.15, print. Pew’s April 2012 Values Survey sampled 3,008 people, including 1,126 Independents.

  2. National Election Pool Poll # 2008-NATELEC: National Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2008-NATELEC] Survey by National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Field Dates: November 4, 2008, Sample: Exiting voters and Absentee/Early voters.

  3. National Election Pool Poll # 2006-NATELEC: National Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2006-NATELEC] Survey by National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Field Dates: November 7, 2006, Sample: Exiting voters and Absentee/Early voters.

  4. National Election Pool Poll # 2010-NATELEC: National Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2010-NATELEC] Survey by National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). Conducted by Edison Research, Field Dates: November 2, 2010, Sample: Exiting voters and Absentee/Early voters.

  5. “2012 Presidential Election Center,” Poll, Gallup, September 3–23, 2012. Accessed September 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx.

  6. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q19. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6650.xml?uuid=HqFn6PvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  7. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q24. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6699.xml?uuid=KFGYgPvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  8. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q29. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6704.xml?uuid=LO3pNPvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  9. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q34. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6653.xml?uuid=UdOXOvvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w#.

  10. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q35. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6654.xml?uuid=U17aiPvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  11. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7–9, 2012, Q20. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6695.xml?uuid=H4K6hvvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w#.

  12. “National: Obama Gains Over Romney,” Poll, Monmouth University, September 17, 2012, Accessed September 25, 2012, p. 5. Available at: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/31a5695e-db0d-4272-b292-b9640f4ff7fb.pdf.

  13. Poll, POLITICO/GWU/Battleground, September 16–20, 2012 by The Tarrance Group Inc./Lake Research Partners, Published September 24, 2012, Accessed September 28, 2012, p. 251. Available at: http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/polling_data_sept2012.html.

  14. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q43. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6660.xml?uuid=WxoGRPvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  15. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q26. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6701.xml?uuid=IMDpXvvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  16. “Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge,” Poll, CBS News/The New York Times, September 14, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/105948704?access_key=key-21q66s0trxu8mhdg69it.

  17. “Obama-Romney Election Post-ABC Poll,” Poll, The Washington Post and ABC News, September 7-9, 2012. Q48. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/question_6665.xml?uuid=afng0PvFEeGYxuwKCpP46w.

  18. Frank Newport, “Majority in U.S. Still Say Government Doing Too Much,” Poll, Gallup, September 6-9, 2012. Accessed September 24, 2012. Available at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157481/majority-say-government-doing.aspx.

  19. “Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years,” Report, The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Released June 4, 2012, Print, p. 5.

  20. Jon Cohen, “Most are negative about Mitt Romney’s ’47 percent’ comments,” The Washington Post, September 26, 2012. Accessed September 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/26/public-also-critical-of-romneys-campaign-47-comments/.

  21. “Weekly State of the Nation Poll,” Poll, Daily Kos/SEIU, September 20–23, 2012, Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/9/20.

  22. Frank Newport, “Voter’s Reaction to Romney’s ‘47%’ Comments Tilt Negative,” Poll, Gallup, September 18, 2012. Accessed September 21, 2012. Available at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157544/voters-reaction-romney-comments-tilts-negative.aspx.

  23. “As Gas Prices Pinch, Support for Oil and Gas Production Grows,” Survey Report, The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, March 19, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/03/19/as-gas-prices-pinch-support-for-oil-and-gas-production-grows/.

  24. Jeffrey M. Jones, “Americans Split on Energy v. Environment Trade-Off,” Gallup, March 23, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/153404/Americans-Split-Energy-Environment-Trade-Off.aspx.

  25. “Environmental Change and Causes,” Poll, The Washington Post, July 1, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/government-building-pipeline-think/2012/06/30/gJQA8vRzEW_page.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines.

  26. “National: Obama Gains Over Romney,” Poll, Monmouth University, September 17, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012, p. 5. Available at: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/31a5695e-db0d-4272-b292-b9640f4ff7fb.pdf.

  27. “Medicare Voucher Plan Remains Unpopular,” Report, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Published August 21, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/21/medicare-voucher-plan-remains-unpopular/.

  28. “Medicare Voucher Plan Remains Unpopular,” Report, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Published August 21, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/21/medicare-voucher-plan-remains-unpopular/.

  29. “Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge,” Poll, CBS News/The New York Times, September 14, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/105948704?access_key=key-21q66s0trxu8mhdg69it.

  30. “Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge,” Poll, CBS News/The New York Times, September 14, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/105948704?access_key=key-21q66s0trxu8mhdg69it.

  31. “Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge,” Poll, CBS News/The New York Times, September 14, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/105948704?access_key=key-21q66s0trxu8mhdg69it.

  32. “Kaiser Health Tracking Poll,” Survey Report, The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, August 2012, p. 4. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8342-F.pdf.

  33. “Kaiser Health Tracking Poll,” Survey Report, The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, February 2012, p. 8. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8281-F.pdf.

  34. “The Complicated Politics of Abortion,” The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, August 22, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/22/the-complicated-politics-of-abortion/.

  35. “Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge,” Poll, CBS News/The New York Times, September 14, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/105948704?access_key=key-21q66s0trxu8mhdg69it.

  36. “American Voters Say Health Care Law Is A Tax Hike,” Poll, Quinnipiac, July 12, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1774.

  37. Poll, The Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation, July 25–August 5, 2012. Accessed September 25, 2012. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/08/18/National-Politics/Polling/question_6370.xml?uuid=wGKBHumEEeGXOe75nF-yhQ.

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Photo of Michelle Diggles, Ph.D.
Michelle Diggles, Ph.D. Former Senior Political Analyst

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