Recovery or Recession? How Young Voters Perceive the Economy Today

Throughout what has otherwise been a messy and chaotic campaign for Donald Trump and the Republicans, their one enduring bright spot has been the economy. Trump has used recent jobs reports showing an improvement in the economy since April to herald this moment a “Great American Comeback.” In response to the September jobs report, the final jobs report released before the November election, Republicans touted the reduced unemployment rate as a proof point of an impressive recovery. While it is clear to most that many sectors of the economy are still struggling, it is less clear how the few remaining persuadable voters will understand the economy as they cast their ballots. Different groups may understand the economy in very different ways; income level, profession, geography, race and age all factor into how voters perceive the relative strength or weakness of the economy.

Young voters in particular have complex views of this economy, as they have faced the brunt of the economic crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic without experiencing the worst of the public health effects. Young voters are experiencing the highest rates of unemployment as they struggle to enter the job market for the first time or are laid off from existing jobs. While voters under 35 are not typically considered a swing voter group, their turnout in the 2020 election will be essential to Democratic successes at all levels. The September jobs report showed a falling unemployment rate. But because of the unique way that young voters evaluate the economy and are being impacted by the economic downturn, they likely perceive the current state of the economy less favorably than President Trump and the Republicans might hope.

A July 2020 poll conducted by Third Way and David Binder Research studied battleground state suburban voters’ perceptions of the economy today, and what metrics these voters use to evaluate the economy. They were asked to select three top factors in their overall evaluations of the economy. Among all voters, unemployment statistics were, unsurprisingly, the top factor for evaluating the economy, followed by businesses opening and closing in their area, economic growth statistics and the Dow/NASDAQ.

As with all suburban voters, unemployment statistics were the top factor named among suburban voters under 35, with 50% listing it as their top criterion. But after unemployment statistics, younger voters differed significantly from the full sample in how they evaluate the economy. They lent more weight to salary statistics, cost of living and rent prices, and less to the Dow/NASDAQ and businesses opening and closing in their area. These differences make sense given that young voters are likely to prioritize the immediate financial necessities of personal income and expenses, and they are unlikely to have significant long-term investments.

The unemployment rate in September fell to 7.9%, a significant improvement from its high of almost 15% in April. Because half of young voters look at unemployment statistics as they evaluate the economy, at first glance it would seem that they would respond positively to the falling unemployment numbers, and they might be inclined to reward President Trump for the economic rebound. Because of the lopsided nature of the economic recovery, however, unemployment numbers understate what young Americans are really going through. The August 2020 youth unemployment rate was 14.7% (the most recent youth data available), down from 26.9% in April, but much higher than the August 2019 youth unemployment rate of 8.6%.

Looking beneath the surface of those unemployment statistics, the plight of young Americans today becomes even more apparent. Americans ages 20-24 are missing two million jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels of employment. College-age workers and recent graduates are overrepresented in the service industries that have taken the biggest hit. Unsurprisingly, young Black workers are seeing the highest rates of unemployment. Moreover, the number of people who are long-term unemployed, meaning that they have been out of work for at least six months, swelled dramatically this month. Young people are almost certainly overrepresented among the long-term unemployed, since many were laid off at the beginning of the pandemic.

Young voters are also unlikely to feel more optimistic when they look at other top metrics for evaluating the economy. The cost of most consumer goods that make up cost of living, including rent prices, has remained flat or increased slightly since the beginning of the pandemic, despite increased unemployment. Health care costs have remained flat or risen. Young voters are unlikely to be discouraged by losses in the stock market because few focus on it as they evaluate the economy, but they are also unlikely to be encouraged by market gains that are touted by Trump or others.

The upshot for this economic and polling data is that young people are unlikely to view the economy with rose-tinted glasses going into the election. Although certain economic indicators have improved, most young people are unlikely to perceive the economy as improving while they still face high rates of unemployment along with a high cost of living. And because the economy is not the only issue on which young people base their vote, they are unlikely to greatly reward Trump for economic gains in any case. The same survey shows that a plurality of young suburban voters say they will prioritize factors other than the economy most when they decide how to vote, while only 23% base more than half of their voting decision on the state of the economy. While Trump may tout recent jobs data as a sign of the economy’s recovery, young Americans who continue to struggle economically are unlikely to be swayed.