Egypt Aid: Don't Be Rash

With the unwilling departure of Mohammed Morsi as Egypt’s president, the U.S. faces the uncomfortable question of whether to suspend foreign aid to the country. Before making a hasty decision that will be hard to undo (both legislatively and bureaucratically), American policymakers should consider what would be the best course of action for the U.S.-Egypt relationship.

Here’s how we recommend approaching this thorny issue:

What Were the Grievances Against Morsi?

The grievances against Morsi that brought millions of protestors into the streets mostly stemmed from disillusionment over the nation’s sputtering economy and anger over the Muslim Brotherhood’s tightening grip on the institutions of power.

• The grassroots organization Tamarod (which led the protests) circulated a petition prior to Morsi’s downfall that asserted, among other grievances, that security had not been restored since 2011, that the economy had “collapsed” and that Egypt had to “beg” for money from outside donors like the IMF.¹
• Others accused the Muslim Brotherhood of suppressing activists and journalists, as well as placing the Brotherhood’s ambitions before those of the nation.²
• The Egyptian military claimed that its anger toward Morsi stemmed from the perception he was allowing Islamic militants to make gains in the Sinai Peninsula.³ This is not surprising—the military has distrusted the Brotherhood for decades.

The Situation Remains Fluid

It remains unclear what will happen in the post-Morsi era, as the situation changes day by day. In the meantime, pro- and anti-Brotherhood protests occur almost daily and often turn violent. While it seems that the military is trying to keep the situation from escalating, it is sometimes drawn into the conflict, resulting in more fatalities. Meanwhile, the economy is still floundering, despite other Arab nations’ pledges to provide billions in emergency aid.

The military and the interim government claim they are rewriting the constitution and creating an election plan that will restore democratic governance to the country.⁴ Brotherhood supporters still regard Morsi’s removal as illegitimate and refuse to cooperate with the military or the interim government.

A Coup or Not a Coup?

Complicating issues for U.S. policymakers is that the law authorizing foreign aid (FY12 Consolidated Appropriations Act, Sec. 7008) states:

None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available …shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d’état or decree, or a coup d’état or decree that is supported by the military.⁵

However, the White House in late July decided it was not legally required to determine whether Morsi’s removal from office was indeed a coup d’état, sidestepping the issue of whether the U.S. can keep sending aid to Egypt.⁶ It’s unclear whether this position will be challenged or changed, but for now it appears that this issue has been set aside.

The Benefits of Providing Aid

From a broader perspective, permanently slashing our aid to Egypt would not be wise, because denying this money might hinder U.S. regional security interests. After all, Egypt plays a critical role in the region and in America’s security interests there.

• The U.S. Navy regularly uses the Suez Canal.⁷
• Because of our aid, Egypt gives the U.S. military priority consideration for use of its airspace.⁸

U.S. businesses also get a return when we provide aid to Egypt. Much of the money provided returns to U.S. businesses because Cairo buys our weapons.

• These funds have been used to purchase F-16 fighter jets, M1A1 Abrams tanks, and Apache helicopters, among other equipment.⁹
• Cairo actually buys more American-made hardware than what our aid provides—between 2001-2009, we gave Egypt about $11.7 billion, but during the same time, they bought $15.4 billion worth of military goods.¹⁰

We also provided the money because Egypt signed the Camp David Peace Accords in 1978 with Israel and has proven a reasonably reliable partner in efforts to prevent flare-ups on Israel’s southern flank. Further, the money helps with critical border security issues, as the Egyptian armed forces have been central in keeping political instability from spilling over into places like Israel and Sudan.

Conclusion

Egypt is going to be in political turmoil for some time, and there is a real and frightening prospect of total chaos in the country. The United States must stay true to our laws and obligations, but our policymakers also have an obligation to ensure that our interests are met, and that means maintaining a relationship with the government in Cairo. This is a tricky balancing act, one that requires Congress avoid rash moves that could push Egypt further towards the brink of collapse.