What Messages Win with Both Swing & Base Voters
Moderate Center-Left Messages Outperform Far-Left Messages across the Board
Third Way tested moderate positions and messages advocated by Harris in 2024, as well liberal messages that Trump’s paid communication highlighted, sometimes with archival footage of Kamala Harris from her time in 2019 running for President in the Democratic primary. On all five issues tested, the moderate message garnered significantly stronger support than that of the liberal message – particularly with ticket-splitters and persuadable swing voters, but also with self-described Democrats, with each message garnering 85% or more support. Meanwhile, the liberal messages significantly underperformed the moderate messages (11% to 24% less support) even garnering slightly lower support with Democratic base voters on issues such as the economy and transgender issues. – Third Way
Democratic Immigration Messages Emphasizing “Order at the Border” Perform Better with Trump Voters and the Democratic Base than the Typical Democratic and Trump/Republican Immigration Messages
The “Order at the Border Dem” message had 79% support, 23 points higher than Trump’s message and 24 points higher than the typical Democratic message. Crucially, the “order at the border” message did 41 points better with Republican voters and even performed 6 points better with Democratic base voters than the typical Dem message. – Third Way
Democratic Messaging on Crime Focused on a Proactive, Strong Accountability Frame Wins with Swing Voters and Dem Base Voters
Democrats need to speak proactively about keeping communities safe from crime and respond to Republican attacks—not be seen as changing the subject. If left unanswered, voters will believe the narrative Republicans are pushing. Third Way’s message testing shows that an approach focused on both accountability and prevention neutralizes Republican attacks, closes the GOP advantage on the issue, and doesn’t hurt Democrats with their base. We recommend the following approach:
- Invoke the value of safety.
- Acknowledge that there is still too much crime.
- Demonstrate bipartisanship.
- Focus on accountability and prevention.
- Provide solutions that pass the accountability and prevention test and are relevant to local communities.
- Recognize there’s more work to be done.
Democratic Candidates Making Strong Prebuttals and Rebuttals around Crime—Getting Out Ahead of Republican “Defund the Police” Attacks—Were Very Effective with Swing Voters and Had a Positiveeffect with the Liberal Base
In 2022, public safety ads with law enforcement validators touting increased public safety funding and/or explicitly stating that Democrats did not support defunding the police had a positive effect with voters from every ideological bloc. Ads from Tim Ryan (OH), Val Demings (FL), Mandela Barnes (WI), John Fetterman (PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Mark Kelly (AZ), Maggie Hassan (NH), and Cheri Beasley (NC) all had a positive effect in moving moderates and conservatives towards casting a ballot for Democrats, and they also marginally moved “very liberal” and “somewhat liberal” voters towards Democrats. – Third Way
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