Social Policy & Politics Program | Report
Independents Day 2012
This report compiles data from Secretaries of State in each of the 8 key swing states with partisan voter registration and found striking never-before-released statistics. The number of Independents is up 3.4% in those states—while Democrats have dropped 5.4% and Republicans have fallen by 3.1%. That means 254,310 new Independent voters to woo in 2012, and 825,708 fewer Democrats. Our analysis also predicts that 2012 will see the highest turnout rate among Independents in 35 years—since Ford v. Carter in 1976. That means if President Obama performs at the levels Democrats did in the 2010 midterms with Independents, it would spell disaster, with 5 key swing states in the loss column and the others substantially tightening, no matter how well Obama does among Democratic voters.
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