America is in the middle of refocusing our mission and priorities in Afghanistan. In this memo we argue for a centrist path. We believe that a sustained and forceful counterterrorism (CT) policy will be more effective than either a broader and long-term counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy or immediate withdrawal from the country.
Based on current factors, a smaller, lethal CT effort is more appropriate for overall U.S. security requirements because COIN will require many more years, hundreds of thousands more troops, and a much more robust political commitment from both the U.S. and international allies to achieve a degree of success—resources that are quickly drying up.
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