In every single 2012 Senate battleground state, moderates make up the biggest chunk of voters. In 8 of 10, conservatives outnumber liberals substantially, making moderate voters even more important to Democrats. Without winning moderates by a significant margin, most Senate Democratic candidates can’t measure out a path to victory.
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End Notes
1 VNS 2000 Election: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-HI]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
2 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-HI: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-HI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
3 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-HI: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-HI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
4 “Exit Polls: Hawaii,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=HIP00p1.
5 “Exit Polls: Hawaii,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=HIS01p1.
6 VNS 2000 Election: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-IN]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
7 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-IN: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-IN]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
8 “Exit Polls: Indiana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=INP00p1.
9 “Exit Polls: Indiana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=INS01p1.
10 VNS 2000 Election: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MA]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
11 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
12 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
13 “Exit Polls: Massachusetts,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MAP00p1.
14 VNS 2000 Election: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MO]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
15 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MO]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
16 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
17 "Exit Polls: Missouri,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MOP00p1.
18 “Exit Polls: Missouri,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=MOS01p1.
19 VNS 2000 Election: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MT]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
20 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MT: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MT]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
21 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MT: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MT]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
22 “Exit Polls: Montana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MTP00p1.
23 VNS 2000 Election: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-NV]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
24 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NV]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
25 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NV]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
26 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NVP00p1.
27 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=NVS01p1.
28 VNS 2000 Election: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-NM]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
29 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-NM: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NM]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
30 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NM: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NM]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
31 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NMP00p1.
32 VNS 2000 Election: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-ND]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
33 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-ND: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-ND]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
34 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-ND: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-ND]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
35 "Exit Polls: North Dakota,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NDP00p1.
36 VNS 2000 Election: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-VA]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
37 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-VA: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-VA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
38 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-VA: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-VA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
39 “Exit Polls: Virginia,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p1.
40 VNS 2000 Election: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-WI]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.
41 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-WI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.
42 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-WI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.
43 “Exit Polls: Wisconsin,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WIP00p1.
44 “Exit Polls: Wisconsin,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=WIS01p1.
