Social Policy & Politics Program | Graphic

Moderates Rule: Senate Control Depends on the Middle

by Michelle Diggles, Ph. D and Lanae Erickson Hatalsky

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In every single 2012 Senate battleground state, moderates make up the biggest chunk of voters. In 8 of 10, conservatives outnumber liberals substantially, making moderate voters even more important to Democrats. Without winning moderates by a significant margin, most Senate Democratic candidates can’t measure out a path to victory.

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End Notes

1 VNS 2000 Election: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-HI]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

2 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-HI: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-HI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

3 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-HI: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-HI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

4 “Exit Polls: Hawaii,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=HIP00p1.

5 “Exit Polls: Hawaii,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=HIS01p1.

6 VNS 2000 Election: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-IN]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

7 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-IN: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-IN]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

8 “Exit Polls: Indiana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=INP00p1.

9 “Exit Polls: Indiana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=INS01p1.

10 VNS 2000 Election: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MA]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

11 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

12 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

13 “Exit Polls: Massachusetts,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MAP00p1.

14 VNS 2000 Election: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MO]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

15 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MO]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

16 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

17 "Exit Polls: Missouri,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MOP00p1.

18 “Exit Polls: Missouri,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=MOS01p1.

19 VNS 2000 Election: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-MT]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

20 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-MT: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MT]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

21 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MT: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MT]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

22 “Exit Polls: Montana,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MTP00p1.

23 VNS 2000 Election: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-NV]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

24 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NV]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

25 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NV]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

26 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NVP00p1.

27 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=NVS01p1.

28 VNS 2000 Election: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-NM]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

29 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-NM: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NM]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

30 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NM: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NM]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

31 “Exit Polls: Nevada,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NMP00p1.

32 VNS 2000 Election: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-ND]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

33 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-ND: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-ND]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

34 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-ND: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-ND]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

35 "Exit Polls: North Dakota,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NDP00p1.

36 VNS 2000 Election: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-VA]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

37 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-VA: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-VA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

38 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-VA: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-VA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

39 “Exit Polls: Virginia,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p1.

40 VNS 2000 Election: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USVNS2000-STELEC-WI]. Conducted by Voter News Service, Fielded November 7, 2000.

41 National Election Pool Poll #2004—STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-WI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 2, 2004.

42 National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-WI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

43 “Exit Polls: Wisconsin,” CNN, Accessed May 16, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WIP00p1.

44 “Exit Polls: Wisconsin,” CNN, Accessed June 27, 2012. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=WIS01p1.

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