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Who's the Base? Moderates Dominate Winning Democratic Senate Coalitions

by Lanae Erickson Hatalsky and Michelle Diggles, Ph. D

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Both parties often talk about mobilizing their “base.” But when it comes to winning Senate races, Democrats must recognize that the base of their vote is actually moderates, not liberals. In every Senate battleground in 2006, more moderates than liberals voted for the Democratic candidate. And in each, moderate voters made up at least 50% of the Democratic Senate vote— dwarfing the number of liberal voters in every single race.

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End Notes

1 State Exit Poll Data Sources:

Hawaii
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-HI: Hawaii Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2006-STELEC-HI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Massachusetts
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MA: Massachusetts Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2006-STELEC-MA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Missouri
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2006-STELEC-MO]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Montana
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-MT: Montana Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-MT]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Nevada
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NV]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

New Mexico
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-NM: New Mexico Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-NM]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

North Dakota
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-ND: North Dakota Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-ND]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Virginia
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-VA: Virginia Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-VA]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

Wisconsin
National Election Pool Poll #2006—STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll [USMI2004-STELEC-WI]. Survey by National Election Pool, Conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, Fielded November 7, 2006.

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