How do you measure fear in the markets? Check the VIX (Volatility Index)—it can tell investors whether to walk, run, or sprint to the nearest exit. This report explains how policymakers use the VIX as a tool to monitor the economic horizon, just as policymakers look at specific indicators to see what’s forming on the political horizon.

Why should you care about Cyprus? One word: precedent. This report explains the principles behind deposit insurance, why a guarantee isn’t always a guarantee, and why the recent Cypriot bailout saga could threaten its future in the Eurozone.

Every day, Wall Street professionals rely on certain market indicators to better understand the future direction of the economy. In this paper, we explain why the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve is a powerful economic crystal ball, and how policymakers can use this tool to help gauge the direction of the U.S. economy.

The delisting of Dell from the NASDAQ stock exchange is the latest example of a leveraged buyout—taking the company from public to private. In this memo, we explore why a company would want to delist from a public exchange, examine why shareholders sometimes disagree, and lay out the pros and cons of a leveraged buyout deal.

This paper dissects the “fear gauge” and shows that even a short term failure to avert a fiscal cliff crisis could have a serious impact on the economy

This report explains why interest rates on U.S. government debt are likely to rise in the future absent a balanced budget deal that changes our fiscal trajectory, and why by the time markets signal that the U.S. has too much debt, it will likely be far too grave to readily correct.

There are lots of acronyms in the capital markets and LIBOR is one of them. It stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate and it is not that well understood. This memo explains why everyone seems to be talking about Libor, and what it means for consumers, businesses, and our financial sector.

Europe’s debt crisis is back in the news. Now it’s Spain. This memo explains what’s happening in Spain and whether we need to be worried here.

TARP is reviled by all but is it really that bad? Actually, no. Using publicly available Treasury documents, this report reveals that TARP is just about breaking even. Instead of a handout, nearly all of the TARP money was issued as loans. Most of these loans have been paid back—with interest. TARP was one of the rare occasions where Congress came together in a bipartisan way and did something that was tremendously unpopular but also absolutely necessary. Our analysis reveals that it’s time to stop treating TARP like it’s been a disaster and call it the success that it’s been. We also created an accompanying infographic.

Italy is the world’s 8th largest economy and has the 3rd largest outstanding debt. Creditors are banging on their door. Due to its size, an Italian bailout is out of the question. Because of its interconnectedness to the European and world economy, an Italian default could cripple the European banking sector and cause an economic catastrophe. In this memo, we explain three key reasons why America needs to pay attention.

Ten years ago, Europe faced a looming debt crisis but economically, fiscally, and demographically they buried their heads in the sand, were afraid to confront voters with the truth about their fiscal situation, and now face draconian measures that may not even be enough. In this memo we explain that it’s not too late for America to make modest changes today. And we warn that our future is Europe if we don’t.

As if DC policymakers don’t have enough to worry about with our own debt, we argue that the Greek bailout may not stop the bleeding. In this memo we dissect and explain how a default in Greece could affect the American economy—from Wall Street titans to widows on pensions—due to the interconnectedness of the global financial system.

This memo explains exactly what it means to be on the S&P watch list, what a downgrade would mean for the U.S. economy, and what needs to be done to preserve America’s AAA credit rating. We also created an accompanying infographic that asks, AAA or AA—In Which Club Do We Want to Belong?

This memo explains what a default of the U.S. Government would mean and why it matters to Main Street. It paints a vivid picture of the negative consequences of default for capital markets, and unpacks issues like T-bills, mortgage rates, and the U.S. dollar’s status as the reserve currency. We also created an accompanying infographic that illustrates the “domino effect” that would rock the country should the U.S. default.